Written by Wendy Waters, ULI BC Chair of Mission Advancement and Director, Portfolio Analysis & Research Services, GWL Realty Advisors
ULI BC was pleased to kick off its “Next Million” series with “Metro Vancouver + 1 Million: Who will live here? How will we house them”, on November 24th with our keynote, Andrew Ramlo of Urban Futures.
Andrew Ramlo gave a fascinating and informative presentation (and even funny!) on what the Lower Mainland will look like—demographically–with an additional million people. The most significant driver of this growth will be migration, and migrants tend to be younger. Indeed, largely because of migration, already in 2015 people age 30-49 outnumber those age 50-69 (the baby boomers) in the Lower Mainland (842,000 versus 725,000 people). Looking ahead, by 2041, Ramlo estimates that the Lower Mainland will have 488,000 more seniors (over age 65) but only 159,000 more people age 0-24; it will also have 499,000 more workers age 25-64 than it does today.
This extra million people will need 550,000 more dwelling units by 2041—and in a region that is already land constrained, added Ramlo.
For ULI BC, as we look to promote the sustainable use of land and healthy communities, there are important implications from Ramlo’s presentation. The most obvious is that fitting another million people or 550,000 dwelling units will mean higher density housing in many neighbourhoods. Future “Next Million” events will address such issues, including housing options and the opportunities and challenges regarding same.
If the working age population grows by 499,000 that means the region will need more job space—office, industrial, retail, medical, etc. Future “Next Million” events will also address how and where this new employment space will be built.
The additional 488,000 seniors will also require evolved and expanded community services focused on serving this community. And although the number of children is not anticipated to grow as rapidly, a net gain of 159,000 means more schools from pre-school through post-secondary education and training.
We are pleased to share some of the key slides from Ramlo’s presentation for your reference. And we would like to once again thank our host, Deloitte, as well as Metro Vancouver for their generous contribution with breakfast.
Watch for future ULI BC “Next Million” events!